A long and stormy debate that would overshadow the Tynwald sitting had been predicted.

But in the event, the ’debate’ on the strategic sea services agreement was really no debate at all and lasted less than five minutes.

Members voted by 23 votes to 0 in the Keys and six votes to one in LegCo merely to note the terms of the Steam Packet’s offer to government and to continue negotiations.

Calm waters may have reigned in Tynwald but it may yet cause a tsunami - with no certainty as to how the Steam Packet will respond to the decision not to approve its offer then and there.

The ferry operator had already warned that it would withdraw its offer if its deal was not accepted.

But there was a conciliatory tone in parliament from Infrastructure Minister Ray Harmer who told members: ’The offer before you is not a bad one.’

But he said while he was honouring a commitment made by his predecessor to bring the matter back to Tynwald for this July sitting, he could not recommend the offer ’as it stands’ and there needed to be further negotiation.

’’Members will not be surprised to hear that I do not think it ideal to conduct negotiations on the floor of Tynwald,’ he said.

Martyn Perkins (Garff), however, warned members to beware and described the Steam Packet as a ’wolf in sheep’s clothing’ which would ’undoubtedly’ sell the company on as soon as it had secured a new sea services deal.

That issue is addressed by the Steam Packet itself in its offer which proposed a new ’fit and proper operator’ clause in the agreement. This test would mean that the current owners would not be able to sell their shares to any third party that did not pass the test.

In its report to Tynwald, the Department of Infrastructure described the offer as ’finely balanced’.

But CoMin, which apparently voted unanimously not to accept the deal, said it does not provide an ’effective solution to securing a satisfactory and sustainable provision for sea services’.

Among the concerns are the length of the agreement which at 25 years is longer than the industry norm, and the configuration of the fleet, with Ministers saying two smaller vessels may be better than a larger conventional ship and a fast craft.

The Steam Packet says the length of the agreement is necessary to provide certainty for investment and it is suggesting a break clause after 10 years. It has expressed surprise about the make-up of the fleet, insisting this was not raised previously.

So where do we go from here?

Steam Packet chairman Robert Quayle has confirmed this particular offer is now off the table and it is in the government’s court if it wants to start negotiations on a new deal.

If ultimately a revised offer is rejected, the current user agreement will run its course, expiring in 2026. The DoI says work to find an alternative would need to begin in five years’ time.

Those alternatives are explored in reports by consultants Oxera and Park Partners - and it is clear the options are limited and are likely to prove expensive.

Nationalistion would require substantial funding to purchase the operation from the current owners at an agreed price and there is a risk of political interference into operations, notes one report.

Creating a company limited by guarantee - an arrangement similar to Network Rail in the UK - would also require taxpayers' money to fund the acquisition.

And as the DoI points out, the position of the Steam Packet shareholders is that it is not for sale.

Franchising is another option. But the consultants suggest there may be little interest in a competitive tendering exercise - although it may be different if the government purchased and owned the boats but that again will be costly to the taxpayer.

The Steam Packet says the cost of a new 800 passenger conventional ship will be £45m while replacing the Manannan with a modern, albeit second hand, fast craft will cost £20m.

A further option, says the DoI, might be to incentivise the Steam Packet’s use of government-owned vessels by allowing it to have the first post-2026 operating franchise term.

The consultants warn that if the user agreement is allowed to run to its expiry date in 2036, it could be used as a ’cash cow’ by the Steam Packet.

That concern is probably overstated as the user agreement sets out the level of services and fare increases. But the ferry operator could withdraw anything it provides over and above the strict wording of the agreement.