The island’s changing demographics will inevitably form part of the general election debate, according to MLC Paul Craine.

Mr Craine said the publication of his self-published Isle of Man Population Atlas 2 had been deliberately timed to encourage discussion ahead of September’s election.

It has taken him four years and more than 3,000 hours to research and produce the volume.

Mr Craine said: ‘There are some key demographic issues which need to be opened up for discussion. These will inevitably be part of the election debate and I am keen for that debate to be well-informed.’

The final chapter of the new Population Atlas examines policy interventions and raises a number of areas where Mr Craine believes the island ‘needs a conversation’.

These include migration, the continuing 15-year decline in births, housing and the challenge of retaining people in their 20s.

The Atlas notes that government does not have an explicit or comprehensive population policy.

A draft economic strategy published in July 2022 set out an ambition to grow the population to 100,000 by 2037.

However, by November that year the strategy had been revised to focus on planning infrastructure and services for an estimated population of 100,000 by 2037.

Chief Minister Alfred Cannan has insisted the 100,000 figure was never a government target.

That milestone appears further away than it did 15 years ago, with the island’s population increasing only from 84,497 in 2011 to 84,975 in 2025.

In 2024, deaths exceeded births in the Isle of Man by more than 61%. Mr Craine said this was almost certainly the highest level of natural population decline ever experienced by the island.

He said: ‘Falling birth rates are not exclusively a UK or Isle of Man phenomenon but part of a wider global trend. It is apparent, however, that this trend is happening much faster in the Isle of Man than in the UK.

‘The Isle of Man is widely recognised as a great place to raise a family. We need a wider conversation about the development of a pro-family culture.’

Mr Craine said a broader discussion about immigration was also required.

He cites analysis by advocate Maria Bridson showing that the introduction of the Worker Migrant visa route in 2018 led to a significant increase in immigration from outside the Common Travel Area.

It is estimated that immigration totalled 8,065 between 2021 and the end of March 2025, while annual totals exceeded 2,200 between 2022 and 2024 - the highest levels for almost 20 years and enough to offset natural population decline.

Mr Craine said one of the most striking features of immigration between 2016 and 2021 was that new residents came from 34 different countries.

He said: ‘The broader issues of the benefits of inward migration, especially in an economy with an imbalanced age structure and labour shortages, and when deaths exceed births by more than 350 per year, have not been addressed.’

Isle of Man Population Atlas 2 is available from Manx National Heritage shops, The Book Company, Bridge Bookshops in Ramsey and Port Erin, T G Jones and Waterstones.