Health and social care costs could spiral to £606m by the year 2035, a review report has estimated.

Tynwald will this month receive a progress report on a major review into the future funding of the Manx NHS.

The 12-month review is being conducted by distinguished clinician Sir Jonathan Michael, with a final report due to be presented for discussion in May.

It was launched following the Department of Health and Social Care repeatedly exceeding its budget.

In his interim report laid before the January Tynwald sitting, Sir Jonathan notes that the DHSC spent £257m on health and social care in 2017-18 but that overall spending rises to about £276m once central shared costs allocated to health and social care are included.

He said analysis by the review team suggests that cost increases should be expected to average 2% per year.

And, assuming they are subject to an annual general inflation rate of 2.5%, this would give an overall cost increase forecast of 4.5% per year.

Sir Michael states: ’Although forecasting over long durations is inherently uncertain, an average cost increase of 4.5% per year would result in the cost of health and social care on the island increasing to £606m in 2035/36 under continuation of current models of care.’

He said that inflation and increased demand driven by an ageing population mean even an improved system providing value for money would require additional funding in the future in order to continue to deliver a similar range of services as currently provided.

The report notes we spend 23% more per head of population on health and social care than the NHS in England.

But it says there are some areas where we are paying significantly more than elsewhere with medical consultant salaries 20%-30% highe, pharmaceuticals 33% higher and spending on agency staff higher as a proportion (13% compared to 6% in England).

Waiting times at Noble’s are relatively long, with targets relating to two week cancer referrals and treatment within 52 weeks of referral not being met.

Options for raising additional funding for health and care services will be outlined in the final report.

Sir Michael said a shift to integrated healthcare is not just a nice-to-have, it is essential if services are to be sustainable and affordable.

He concludes: ’Due to its size, geography and political autonomy, the Isle of Man is well placed to make the changes required to become an exemplar of integrated health and social care and a model for others to follow.’