El Niño may be contributing to weather patterns that increase the likelihood of stormy conditions across the Isle of Man and north-west Europe, although it is too early to establish whether it has played a direct role in the severity of recent storms.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon involving a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

Beth Penhallurick, of the Ronaldsway Met Office, said current evidence suggested the phenomenon could influence weather in the UK and Isle of Man, but cautioned against attributing individual storms or their intensity to El Niño.

She said the UK Met Office had indicated that El Niño generally increased the likelihood of a windy and mild start to the winter.

Its latest assessment also suggested an increased chance of wetter and stormier conditions across north-west Europe, including the UK and Isle of Man, during autumn and early winter.

However, these changes relate to probabilities rather than definite predictions that particular storms will occur.

Ms Penhallurick said: ‘We could therefore say that El Niño may form part of the background conditions affecting the likelihood of stormy weather, but establishing whether it contributed to a specific UK/Isle of Man storm would require formal academic research.’

She added that other meteorological factors, particularly conditions over the North Atlantic and the position and behaviour of the jet stream, remained important influences on the weather experienced across the British Isles.

El Niño forms part of a wider climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which also includes its opposite phase, La Niña, when those waters become cooler than average.

Changes in ocean temperatures affect atmospheric circulation, influencing wind patterns, rainfall and temperatures in different parts of the world.