The forthcoming House of Keys by election in South Douglas may look like a local sideshow but it will have implications beyond the constituency.
The two successful candidates will form eight per cent of the main chamber of our national parliament, at a time of extraordinary political and economic challenges.
Their votes could make a real difference to some serious decisions.
In keeping with the amateur culture of Manx politics we do not expect prospective MHKs to have all the answers.
But we are entitled to more than parochial platitudes from those bidding to be responsible for our laws and public finances.
Credible contenders will have done their homework on the major ongoing issues, rather than just looking at recent headlines.
They will not say ’I won’t really know till I get in there’ when asked about their policies, and they will offer a clear sense of direction and priorities.
They will show an awareness of national and international matters, as well as constituency concerns.
Manx elections are open to everyone, including opportunists and fantasists.
With 10 candidates standing in South Douglas, the winners could find themselves elevated to membership of the world’s oldest continuous parliament on the basis of a couple of hundred votes. The potential for over promotion is significant.
So it is important that the candidates are properly challenged and tested to see if they are up to the job.
I believe aspiring national politicians should be able to address questions like these:
1. Which three issues are at the top of your agenda and how would you progress them?
Candidates wishing to be all things to all persons, or who have no ideas of their own, tend to say they have a lengthy list of concerns, all equally pressing.
But politics is all about prioritising limited resources, and we need to know what matters most to them.
What change would they focus on and how would they achieve it? Or would they waste time chasing every rabbit in the field?
Are their priorities local or national?
2. What are likely to be the lasting consequences for the Isle of Man of the Covid-19 crisis?
Apart from the immediate impact on the economy, unemployment and public finances, will there be more appetite in future for bold government intervention, border controls and self-sufficient ’Manx solutions’?
Will we forget our appreciation of the importance of health and social care, and the people who work in those services?
The island’s success in dealing with Covid could attract a fresh wave of new residents seeking a safe haven in a chaotic world. Are we ready for that?
Meanwhile why is our government so reluctant to rely on virus testing at the border, when Jersey is doing it to allow tourists in?
3. Overall, are you supportive of the priorities and performance of the current government?
If not, does that mean they would refuse to join the government as a member of a department or board?
What would they have done differently, if they had been in charge?
Candidates often aim for easy applause by rubbishing the government of the day, but we should prefer an informed and honest assessment.
Do they actually know what has been happening over the past four years?
Can they summarise the successes and failures of the Quayle regime, apart from going on about Douglas prom?
Marks out of ten for this administration? (What score would make you The Opposition?).
4. Would you be prepared to increase taxes or charges to pay for health and social care, and for action on climate change?
If not, what other government spending would they cut to free up funding for these priorities?
Would they favour means testing of services and benefits over universal provision?
Even before the Covid-19 crisis, the funding gap for supporting a decent health and social care service was estimated as rising to an annual £120 million over the next 15 years. That’s half as much again on top of the current departmental budget.
The island’s journey to carbon neutrality could cost the public and private sectors £25 million a year over the next 30 years.
Any increase in the burden of taxation should be consistent and fair. Could the government ask the public to pay more while maintaining the tax cap for the wealthy and a zero rate for companies?
With spending under pressure, how tolerant will people be of the big bill for public sector pensions?
5. What are the key factors that will ensure the future success of the Manx economy?
Is the zero rate of corporate income tax (see above) really still necessary to retain and attract business?
Is our education system, and the technical and transport infrastructure, fit for the challenges ahead?
And if the Steam Packet had to be nationalised as a strategic asset, why doesn’t the government also buy an airline? Take over telecoms too?
Maybe the island’s quality of life - Biosphere environment, Covid-free, low crime - will prove to be the main attraction for entrepreneurs and their families.
6. Does the Isle of Man need more new residents and housing development?
Current government policy is to encourage an expansion in the economically active population.
That means immigration, and newcomers need somewhere to live.
If the population increases and we do not provide enough housing, young locals could be priced out of the market. Planning restrictions won’t help.
Should the island continue to offer an open door to all new residents, or only allow in the economically active?
7. How do you view the island’s constitutional and economic position in a post-Brexit world?
Have the candidates done any homework on the implications of Brexit? If not, why not?
Would detachment from EU influence be good for the finance sector, and how would manufacturing, farming and fishing be affected by a no-deal departure?
As a British Crown Dependency the Isle of Man will sail in convoy with the United Kingdom when it ventures into the uncharted waters of post-Brexit trade. But what if Britain itself breaks up? Do we go independent, or ally ourselves with Scotland or Ireland?
8. What is the best way of helping the less prosperous parts of our society?
Is the answer more government intervention in the form of a meaningful living wage, generous welfare benefits and robust regulation of the cost of living?
Or is it the creation of an environment in which business is free to flourish, generating better job opportunities and higher wages?
Does our education system provide real equality of opportunity for all the island’s youngsters?
9. What would you change in the Manx political system to make it more democratic?
The much maligned scrutineers of the Legislative Council are the obvious target here. But what about the fact that the public has no say in the choice of Chief Minister?
Can the Council of Ministers block vote be justified, and is the culture of Tynwald truly open and accountable? (If so, why do all members attend closed government briefings?)
Do we need public referendums on important questions, or has Brexit put us right off direct democracy?
10. As an MHK would you vote for a proposal that was good for the Isle of Man as a whole but unpopular with some of your constituents?
In a micro-democracy where one person can be a pressure group, politicians are highly susceptible to lobbying that may not represent wider public opinion (which is often unknown).
Is it their job to react to the loudest voices, or to form their own judgement of what’s best for the island?
Should an MHK be popular or responsible?
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