Transformation has become one of the key buzz-words of the Quayle administration, along with ’programme’, ’team’ and ’arm’s length’.
Its use suggests a government with almost magical powers to solve the major problems of our age, or one with more confidence than experience.
The transformational approach is bold but simple:
1. identify big issue;
2. commission external expert to recommend way forward;
3. accept recommendation;
4. establish team and programme;
5. deliver historic change.
The fashion for the T word began with the report from Sir Jonathan Michael on the future of health and social care, approved by Tynwald in May last year.
The label has also been attached to Professor James Curran’s inquiry into how the Isle of Man could achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
His report and an initial government action plan have both been backed by members at this month’s sitting.
Government is to be commended for addressing these issues, for seeking strategic policy advice from independent experts, and for the hard work that has gone into supporting their investigations.
But transformation packages come with eye-watering price tags.
And one thing that experts cannot do for politicians is make the difficult decisions on how to pay for them.
The Michael report warned that even after efficiency savings there would be a growing funding gap for health and social care rising to as much as £120 million a year in 15 years’ time, dwarfing the current £8 million overspend.
Professor Curran, meanwhile, estimates that the journey to carbon neutrality could cost the island’s public and private sectors £25 million a year each over the next 30 years.
How the necessary public revenue should be acquired and distributed, he points out, is ’ultimately a political decision’.
Government has said remarkably little so far on long-term funding for health and social care, as if this particular elephant in the room is too big to recognise.
It has been a bit more forthcoming, however, over the financial implications of responding to climate change.
The Council of Ministers action plan acknowledges that costs will be ’substantial’ and that options for meeting them include taxation, ’reprioritising’ existing spending (good luck with that one), using reserves or borrowing.
The action plan expresses the hope that further clarity on funding requirements and sources can be provided in the 2021 Manx Budget.
This is brave, or naive, for that budget will be unveiled six months before the next House of Keys general election, not normally the best time for flagging up tax increases, spending cuts or fiscal imprudence.
The traditional political instinct would be to kick the can down the road until after the election, and to hide behind ongoing work to provide more detail.
But public discussion of the principles of funding, of what would be the fairest and most effective way of raising revenue, does not have to wait until the accountants come up with a more precise estimate of the final bills.
Surely it is enough to know that those bills will be very large, unavoidable and way beyond our current income.
What we need from the Council of Ministers, well before the election in September next year, is an honest assessment of the issues and options around the future funding of health and social care, and achieving carbon neutrality.
This will maintain momentum in these vital projects and facilitate a fully informed public debate during the election campaign, providing a clear mandate for decisions in the new House.
Amongst other things, that debate will have to question the continuing relevance of allowing most companies to pay no income tax.
Or are there still real restrictions on what the island can afford while remaining economically competitive?
In the meantime it would be interesting to know how the Council of Ministers worked out, before it decided to recommend them, that these two colossal programmes would be financially sustainable.
Because, without a credible means of funding, a commitment to transformation is not as impressive as it sounds.
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