A falling working age population - combined with rocketing numbers in retirement - remains one of the biggest challenges facing this island.

Estimates in the latest quarterly economic report from the Cabinet Office show that while the total population rose this year, the number of under 65s has fallen.

Government needs the economically-active population to grow to generate the extra tax revenues it needs to fund services.

But the Manx government insists other indicators show the economy is continuing to perform well - with more people in employment and tax revenues up.

The latest quarterly economic report suggests the total population has risen since 2017 by 146 in the first quarter of this year and by 155 in the second.

But the estimated under-65s population fell by 98 in the first quarter, compared with the same period last year and by 105 in the second - although there was an increase of 73 between March and June.

The estimated number of under 65s was 66,150 in December, 66,033 in March and 66,106 in June. In March last year it was 66,130.

census

There had been a sustained period, between 2012 and 2016, when the island’s population fell - as reflected in the last census. Last year, it grew again.

Paul Craine, author of the Manx Population Atlas, said the estimates confirm the growing disconnect with projected figures used in the draft East Area Plan, which assumes the population will be 93,000 in eight years’ time.

He added: ’The growth that has taken place in the last two years appears to be entirely in the over-65 age group.

The age group under 65 years is unchanged from the 2016 Census. This remains one of the biggest challenges facing the Isle of Man.

’The under 65 population fell by over 3,400 between 2011 and 2016.’

Mr Craine said the Isle of Man now had what the UN categorises as a ’hyper-aged’ population with more than 21% of the population aged over 65.

He said: ’We are ranked in the top half dozen countries in the world on this figure. More than 1,000 people turn 65 each year, while only 750 are born.’

Mr Craine said the recent estimates need to be used with some caution as they are calculated using the number of people registered with a GP and subtracting a ’ghost’ constant to bring the figures in line with census data.

In February this year, the Cabinet Office published a report on meeting the island’s population challenges.

It looked as measures to tackle the emigration of young adults, reverse declining fertility and cater for growing numbers in retirement.

Other economic indicators suggest the Manx economy remains strong.

In June this year, there were 530 more people in jobs than the same month the previous year.

And government accounts for the financial year ending March this year show that income tax receipts were £21.6m better than forecast and National Insurance income £13.7m better than forecast.

Chief Minister Howard Quayle said: ’We know we need to increase our economically-active population, making sure we have enough people to fuel the development of our local businesses and our economy.’

’We can’t rest on our laurels,’ he added.

The Department for Enterprise is to launch its "Locate strategy" in October, which will set out plans to grow the workforce.

These include retaining and attracting graduates, working with employers and recruitment agencies, and attracting high net worth individuals and foreign direct investment.

In the past 18 months the DfE has offered assistance to help more than 200 skilled workers locate here through a targeted support programme of relocation incentives.

This was recently extended with a further £2m being provided to support export employers locating new staff here by providing up to £10,000 per role.