The war in Ukraine is likely to affect food supplies in the UK and in the Isle of Man in a number of ways.

Ukraine supplies around 30% of the world’s wheat and Ukrainian farmers should soon be planting their crops for the coming season. But their main agricultural areas, which boast some of the richest soil in the world, are now under aerial attack and artillery bombardment.

Wheat and grain already produced cannot now be exported because of the Russian naval blockade of Odesa and the country’s other southern ports.

In the UK, feed wheat prices (for feeding livestock) have already risen 39% since March last year and this will clearly also affect the cost of meat production.

According to the NFU in the UK, the cost of producing a chicken is 50% higher than it was a year ago but farmers have so far been absorbing much of this extra cost.

The NFU has also warned that fresh seasonal produce in the UK is likely to be affected as Ukrainian workers have accounted for 60% of recruits under the UK’s Seasonal Workers Scheme, carrying out essential roles such as planting, picking, packing and grading fresh produce.

All of this means the Isle of Man Government’s commitment to food security under the Our Island Plan is going to need to be a lot more than mere words.

During the early stages of the pandemic, in March 2020, images of supermarket shelves stripped of essentials like flour haunted us all. The question now is – is this likely to happen again?

Food & Farming spoke to Philip Dunne, chairman of the board of Laxey Glen Mill.

He said: ‘We are really in a fortunate position where our silos are pretty much full and we still have wheat sitting on the farms and we have no capacity to store any more.

‘We’re well stocked with wheat.’

As he goes on to explain, 95% of Manx wheat is winter wheat, which has a higher gluten protein content, making it ideal for bread and flour production.

That was planted in the autumn for this year’s crop which will be harvested in August and September.

He went on: ‘In terms of food security, I think that goes along with environmental security and provenance – people are asking us more and more: where has it come from; how was it grown, and who’s making the money out of it.

‘We purchase every last bit of grain on the Isle of Man and we know that it’s only travelled 20 miles [to get to the mill]: if it can be grown locally why would you bring it in from Canada?

‘But it’s important to say that local provenance doesn’t mean your standards have to be lower. We have to learn what they’re doing elsewhere and we must make sure that the quality isn’t less than [customers] would get elsewhere.

‘We are constantly in touch with UK millers and bakers to ensure that we’re getting the best out of the wheat we grow on the Isle of Man. We need our milling to be the best it can be and our baking too.

‘DEFA have helped us along the way, to make sure the training we’re getting is up to speed.’

And, as Mr Dunne points out: ‘People will make a choice and [locally produced] is more expensive – people growing on small farms is always going to be more expensive. But it’s like an insurance policy – you pay a bit more so you know it’s always there for you. During the pandemic we milled night and day to make sure our flour was on the shelves when the supermarkets didn’t have any.’

That’s something to think about when you are deciding whether or not to buy a cheap imported loaf.

As Mr Dunne adds: ‘Perhaps we are moving from a “just in time” economy to a “just in case” economy.’