With Westminster in turmoil over Brexit, the threat of a no-deal is growing by the day. Chief Minister Howard Quayle, too, is predicting a hard Brexit. So if the UK cannot win 11th hour concessions from Brussels, how will crashing out of the EU without a deal impact on island life?

Exporters including manufacturing,

fisheries and farmiNG

The manufacturing sector relies more than most others on the island’s existing relationship with the UK and the EU.

Presently, large parts of the manufacturing sector run on a ’just in time’ basis for goods imported and exported. These goods travel across EU member states without customs checks or tariffs. Potentially, depending on the outcome of negotiations, this will change.

The government has published a Brexit Business Checklist and is working closely with and offering support to businesses in sectors that could be affected.

There will be no change for farming on the island or the support that Isle of Man Government provides to the agricultural sector. Similarly, the regulation of the fisheries sector on the island will not immediately change as a result of Brexit.

However, what may change are the terms on which producers are able to export to the EU market. In a no-deal scenario, animal products will be subject to additional testing requirements before they can be sold to the EU market and all exports will potentially become subject to tariffs, which could make them less competitively priced in their destination country.

Medicines and health

The Isle of Man has been working closely with colleagues in the Department of Health and Social Care in the UK to ensure that the supply of medicines and medical devices can continue as normal after March 29, 2019. The Isle of Man is part of the UK NHS supply chain for medicines and medical devices, and therefore the island is included within all UK contingency planning in this area.

Once products are in the UK, there is no further disruption anticipated for onward delivery to the Isle of Man, outside of the normal risk factors we face, such as inclement weather.

The Isle of Man will ensure that it carries additional levels of stock in order to deal with these ’normal’ disruptions, which means that they carry stocks to deal with several weeks of normal demand.

Food retail

Although we are fortunate to have many producers of high-quality food and drink in the Isle of Man, most of our food comes from the UK.

The UK Government has stated that it does not expect there to be food shortages after March 29, nor does the Manx government, but there could be delays at key Channel crossings of Dover and via Eurotunnel, which may cause changes to the types of food we will see in our shops and supermarkets.

Other retail businesses may be similarly affected by delay in the supply chains that deliver stock to them from EU suppliers.

It is also possible that increased costs for suppliers, coupled with the potential for new tariffs being levied on goods moving from the EU to the UK and a fall in the value of the pound will result in an increase in the prices of goods that originate in the EU.

Public finances

We are not anticipating that a no-deal Brexit would have a significant immediate impact on public finances.

The public finances of the island are stable and the 2019-20 budget was one of confidence in the Manx economy. It provided a boost to working families, investment in vital infrastructure, extra funding for vital public services, and introduced measures to stimulate job growth.

It also topped-up the existing Brexit Fund to £2.5m, which departments will be able to draw upon to support costs incurred as a result of the UK’s withdrawal.

EU nationals living in the island

The Isle of Man will have an EU settlement scheme in place and will be ready to accept applications from March 30, 2019. Applications will be free of charge.

A person’s eligibility depends on when they took up residence in the Isle of Man, UK or Channel Islands, as set out below:

EU citizens and their family members who arrived in the Isle of Man, UK or Channel Islands, before 30 March 2019, and will have been continuously resident for five years by December 31, 2020, will be eligible for ’settled status’ under immigration law. This is referred to as ’indefinite leave to remain’ (ILR) under current law, and entitles those who receive it to stay indefinitely.

EU citizens and their family members who arrived in the Isle of Man, UK or Channel Islands before March 30 this year, but won’t have been continuously resident for five years before the end of 2020, will be eligible for ’pre-settled status’. This is also referred to as leave to remain (LTR) and enables these people to stay until they reach the five-year threshold for ’settled status’.

EU citizens who arrive in the Isle of Man, UK or Channel Islands after March 30, 2019 must apply for ’Leave to Remain’ after three months. A new European Temporary Leave to Remain Scheme will be created in order to facilitate this grant of leave.

Close family members (spouses, civil and unmarried partners, dependent children and grandchildren, and dependent parents and grandparents) living overseas will still be able to join EU citizens resident here, where the relationship existed on December 31, 2020 and continues to exist when the person comes to the Isle of Man. Future children are also protected.

Travel and tourism

In respect of travel, as now, you will not need a passport to travel within the Common Travel Area, which for travel from the Isle of Man includes journeys to the UK, to Ireland, and the Channel Islands.

There should be no change to the operation of flights between the Isle of Man and UK airports. For those flying onwards to the EU, it is not anticipated that passengers holding ’Schengen compliant’ passports will experience any issues at UK airports.

Arrangements upon arrival at EU airports may be a little different, as UK passport holders (including those issued in the Isle of Man) will now join the ’Non-EU’ queue when arriving at passport control, and could be subject to additional ’third country’ checks.

In respect of tourism and the visitor economy, the island shares a common currency with the UK and is a part of the Common Travel Area with the UK, Ireland and the Channel Islands, and it is therefore difficult to envisage there being any significant impact upon the number of people visiting the island when the UK leaves the EU.

It may be the case that possible currency fluctuations following UK exit from the EU will encourage ’staycations’, and the island could see a rise in visitors from the UK. Likewise, the number of visitors from the EU could increase as a result of the strength of the Euro against the Pound.