There’s no silver bullet to reverse the decline in the island’s working age population, says a government Minister.

Results from the latest Census, published last week, reveal that the resident population fell by 1.4 per cent from 84,497 to 83,314, between 2011 and 2016.

But more worrying still, the core working age population fell by just over 2,000. And the biggest drop was among the 20 to 29-year-olds who are leaving for university or work and not coming back.

Coupled with a falling birth rate and an ageing population, the figures make alarming reading for government which needs the tax revenue to pay for public services and pensions.

NOT COMPLACENT

So does government believe this is a blip or a trend?

Minister for Policy and Reform Chris Thomas said: ’Government policy is aimed to make it a blip, as the short decline in the early 80s was.

’The census picture only confirms evidence which was taken into account as the Government Programme and Budget were prepared. ’Both apply policies and resources to create career and life opportunities, especially for younger people and those in the middle. Various housing, employment, education, training and other policy responses are being put into place to address the economic and quality of life issues which affect people as they make decisions about their own futures.

’Of course the trend since 2013 might continue, but I don’t think it will. For instance, the population seems to have increased by 200 since census night a year ago.’

He added: ’I am not complacent. The issues raised are serious. But these issues have been presented clearly, analysed extensively, and the new government is bound together around the new Government Programme and Budget policies which address these issues.’

Last month’s Budget is based on forecasts of growth - so are those forecasts achievable if there are fewer people here to pay taxes?

Mr Thomas replied: ’Yes, especially if median earnings increase.

’Average earnings have increased for a number of years, median earnings are increasing now too as more people benefit from economic growth. This is what government wants to see happening.’

So what can the government do to encourage young people to come back to the island to work after university?

The Minister said: ’Twenty-year-olds have always left for education and experience - it’s only the magnitude which is different now.

’There is no silver bullet which can be fired.

’What is needed is a suite of policy responses encouraging good jobs and careers opportunity, addressing quality of life, housing, off-island transport and any other issues.

’It is important to see in the Census report that there are economic sectors with more under 40s in them than five years ago e.g. ICT, e-Gaming, engineering, education and some professional services.

’We expect to be able to build on this success, replicating ingredients for success in these sectors in other sectors. Localising economic activity is an important dimension of this.’

Missing

’Misinterpretation’ of the Census form led to 1,400 under-16s initially being missed out. Some 597 of these were found leaving 803 which were imputed into the data. A further 48 households who did not return their form have been referred to the AG Chambers.