The report into the area plan for the east inquiry has stated there is ’no evidence’ of the island having had a housing shortage in the past nine years.

Michael Hurley, who chaired the inquiry, has said despite estate agents seeing an increase in the number of houses being bought and sold, the drop in population seen in 2016 and evidence from public services showed the projected growth never happened.

Throughout the inquiry into the area plan - which covers Dougla, Onchan, Braddan, Laxey, Lonan, Marown and Santon - the 2016 census, which saw a drop in the island’s population, was used by objectors as evidence there isn’t the need for the 2,440 new homes the Cabinet Office and developers claimed were needed in the east of the island.

Since the last census, that figure has now been reviewed and brought down to 1,357 new homes, but the government has stuck to the 2,440 number, with some zones designated as ’strategic reserves’.

Mr Hurley said: ’My own view is that, while the number of residential properties available for sale or rent may have fluctuated over time, there is no evidence to suggest that there has been a housing shortage, sufficient to inhibit inward migration to the Isle of Man, at any time since 2011.’

He added: ’Paul Craine’s evidence was that, prior to 2016, there had been significant decreases in the number of applications for work permits; in the number of registrations with GPs; and in school rolls. These each confirmed the decline in population.’

The government had assumed that following the 2011 census where the population was recorded as about 84,500, it would rise to about 87,600 in 2016 and 93,500 in 2021. This projection relied on the presumption of a net inward migration of 500 people a year, a figure that hasn’t been reached in a single year since the global economic crash in 2008.

But Stephen Carse, formerly the government’s economic advisor, who was working with, but not for, property developer Dandara as an independent consultant, said that evidence including tax records and electricity accounts showed there had been population growth.

Mr Carse said the census was conducted by post and there had been an acknowledged degree of under-reporting of the figures. Despite the published figures being amended to show this and the Cabinet Office never questioning the figures itself, Mr Carse continued to argue the exercise had been ’incomplete’.

He said that during the period of 2011 to 2016, the island had shown strong economic growth and that there had historically been a positive correlation between that and a rise in population, meaning the figure should’ve risen by 3,000. Other indicators that pointed towards this included more than 2,000 new electricity accounts.

Mr Hurley said he did accept the argument that ’no census is without a degree of inaccuracy’ and that it is ’impossible’ to be certain about the precise population change.

But added: ’I consider there to be strong evidence that the projected population growth between 2011 and 2016, which helped inform the current strategic plan’s housing policy, failed to materialise.’