The island’s social security fund will run dry within the next 25 years.

A report by the UK Government Actuary is due to go to Tynwald in the spring.

The report says that the fund will run dry in 2047/48, five years earlier than previously thought.

Martin Clarke’s report says that demographic changes will continue to put increased strain on the fund and that based on the current levels of income and outgoings, it will be paying out more than it is taking in by 2033/34.

In the long term, the report says the three factors driving the expenditure will be demographics, the Triple Lock policy and the new Manx State Pension.

While the government is banking on population growth to save the island’s fortunes, the report says this can only be done by a massive increase in inward population, as without that we will actually see another population decrease.

The report said: ‘The Isle of Man resident population is estimated to be 84,120 in 2022. In the central population projection that we have prepared and which assumes net inward migration of 300 people a year, the population is projected to fall to around 83,250 by 2037.

‘Based on recent trends in the Isle of Man, the 100,000 population and additional 5,000 jobs envisaged in the island’s economic plan are unlikely to be achieved other than through much higher levels of inward migration. It is of course possible that fertility or mortality rates more favourable to population growth are experienced over the next 15 years.

‘However, these are more likely to affect the very young and very old segments of the population and would not be immediately conducive to creating the additional capacity in the working age population.’

However, even if this did work, which would require an inwards migration of about 1,300 a year to reach 100,000 by 2037, the report warms that this would ‘put back the fund exhaustion point by further years’.