In this article for Business News, Paul Crocker, investment director of FIM Capital based in IOMA House, Hope Street, Douglas, argues that society could be sleep-walking into a world of unexpected events.

Immediate change is obvious but creeping change is only evident after a period of reflection.

Take the altered London skyline or long-haul air travel.

Now, one can now fly from London to Perth directly, when it used to take four days and nine stops.

The era of slow change has disappeared, replaced by the catalysts of technology.

Something new may be more efficient, cheaper, win greater market share and create larger profits but only until something better comes along.

Will slower change return?

Historically, rapid change was typically a by-product of war or religion and consequential destruction, while a slower pace was usually associated with interim periods of peace.

If this is the price to pay, I am not sure we want it back.

Until recently, war and religion bonded foes, tore families apart and created or destroyed wealth. Government-led regeneration achieves the same end-results but realistically it is far less effective than free market capitalism or globalisation armed with technology, explaining why new structures are often named after sport stars and celebrities, rather than generals or saints.

There is another price to pay, however.

We forget the lessons learnt by earlier generations.

Few regularly go to church or acknowledge Sunday as a day of rest.

Extremists excepted, I doubt many testosterone-fuelled teenagers would consider signing up to defend the realm if it meant they could not play “Call of Duty” until the early hours (unless they lived in Norway or Sweden where conscription remains compulsory).

Moral standings which dictated to earlier generations have disappeared as consumer-driven societies drifted towards pacifism to protect unrelenting appetites.

This is where the risk now lies, as Britain has discovered in its dealings with Russia.

Here, the terms of engagement appear to be lies, chaos and unpredictability, while years of defence cuts mean that Britain can huff and puff but do little else, while its enemies utilise technology to undermine the bonds of society.

The irony behind all of this beggars belief.

Earlier sanctions on agricultural exports to Russia transformed its farming base while Western suppliers lost a key market.

Meanwhile the nerve agent used in Salisbury was an organophosphorus compound, which the British Government forced farmers to use in the 1970s and 80s, quietly choosing to ignore the danger it posed to human health.

The lives destroyed by this debacle are an unknown quantity but would run into hundreds if not thousands, rather than two. The British Government is by no means innocent.

unrelenting change

Our ancestors would not recognise the lives we now lead but unrelenting change means that the risk of sudden regression is growing.

Education’s desire to be politically correct and gloss over history’s harsh realities means it now lacks depth.

It is decades since a shortage of anything occurred, so mentally, physically and psychologically we are ill-prepared.

The nearest any of us has come to conflict is at our fingertips, on social media where ‘micro-aggressions’ occur regularly over anything which portrays suffering, without looking at the broader argument. We can protest in seconds, proceeding with our self-indulgent lifestyles rather than expecting to sacrifice days, months or years to our cause.

Counter-attack today is not a missile but the phrase “I am highly offended”. Try saying that to a party beyond the national border.

Gradual and unrelenting change also affects capital markets. Just a few weeks ago, news headlines were dominated by stock market losses, yet in the US, 80% of those transactions were computer-to-computer trades, as one party tried to get the better of another, in a game which has repercussions for everything from interest rates to pensions and our general wellbeing.

Yet we see no outcry, or understand who controls the trades. We just accept this as part of life, forgetting that, 30 years ago, computer trading was non-existent.

Despite its invisibility, computer trading could cause recessions.

We worry about obesity, yet often fail to see that modern diets (ready meals, laden with sugar and salt combined with inactive office jobs) eventually take their toll.

The dining room is now a TV room, where family fast food is eaten on the knees, yet we wonder why table manners are deteriorating. We spend hours on the internet looking at cat videos or updates on our cousin’s sponsored walk, yet are ill-informed on current affairs as quality journals face extinction, replaced by media outlets with vested interests.

oblivious

We are oblivious to the fact that our elderly neighbour may need help, as our eyes are glued to a screen. The world may be at our fingertips but it’s internet access we want, forgetting that HMRC’s super computer is reputedly monitoring every bill to assess whether expenditure exceeds declared income. You can’t hide anything from anyone.

Creeping change has eroded traditional values and while mostly beneficial, there is a growing risk of naively sleepwalking into a world of unexpected events for which we are ill-prepared. Our most highly cherished value is freedom, yet we take it for granted.

The freedom to think, to help ourselves and others, as well as taking responsibility for our actions in the backdrop of a fair and open media, is all based on experiences passed down through generations.

False news and computer-driven markets cause growing anxiety and influence opinions. We are not prepared for a trade war, cold war or even a hard Brexit from any perspective, be it physical, social or mental.

Although it shouldn’t have come as a surprise, these risks have crept upon us while we were looking elsewhere.