This week saw a continuation in the plateau of Covid-19 case numbers across all age groups.

The current seven-day average for reported positive results is 27, and the effective reproduction number (Rt) was 1.19 this week, a further slight increase from last week’s value of 0.56.

As seen in previous weeks, the increase in Rt from the previous week, despite a plateau in case numbers, is due to a smaller number of weekly cases that are assumed recovered after a 10-day period than in previous weeks.

It is worth noting that Rt values are sensitive to large fluctuations when daily case numbers are small. Therefore, consideration should be taken of other epidemiological data to gain a true understanding of patterns of spread.

This week’s report also includes the latest update from the Waste Water Surveillance pilot project.

This project is a partnership between the Isle of Man government and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The project aims to investigate the usefulness of waste water testing to monitor levels of infectious disease on Island, including SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid-19), enterovirus (a family of viruses which includes the ‘winter vomiting bug’ norovirus) and influenza.

Results from the latest update show an increase in SARS-CoV-2 RNA from week ending May 7 to week ending May 14.

These results may suggest an under-reporting of cases from LFD tests in the island.

The report also states that: ‘In the absence of new variants of concern, we would expect the fall in cases to continue as the current BA.2 omicron wave passes through the susceptible population and we move through Spring into Summer.

‘Our current continuing trend in case numbers supports this.’