Coronavirus is much more widespread than tests results are showing, the Council of Ministers has been warned.

Ministers were told last Friday by the DHSC’s clinical and public health working group that the next few weeks will be ’incredibly important’ in the island’s fight against the Covid-19 pandemic.

And on the Monday before - the day our borders closed to non-residents - interim DHSC chief Kathryn Magson, writing on behalf of the working group, warned what would happen if no action was taken.

She wrote: ’The situation is grave.

’The up-to-date information we have is that Noble’s Hospital will be filled to capacity in two to three weeks, if the spread of the infection continues at its current rate.’

The two letters were distributed to Tynwald members at the request of Chief Minister Howard Quayle who said they were helpful in understanding CoMin’s decisions.

In her letter dated March 27, Ms Magson said the government’s decision to enact a lockdown from midnight the previous night had the full support of the clinical and public health working group.

She wrote: ’We recognise the need to be balanced in our approach around the severity of the position and confidence with the public, but this is a matter of life or death, and these decisions will make a difference in our ability to take care of the residents of the Isle of Man.

’In line with our situation reports provided daily, we know that the virus is very much here. It is in our opinion much more widespread in the community than the current results show, and that the next few weeks will be incredibly important.’

At that stage, there had been 29 cases of coronavirus confirmed, up three from the previous day. There are now 95.

Health Minister David Ashford has previously confirmed that individuals showing symptoms are not tested where other members of the same household have tested positive. This is because the focus of testing is about infection control.

When asked about under reporting of figures, Mr Ashford told iomtoday: ’There is no estimate of under-reported cases as it is not physically possible to do.

’Some people contract the virus and show no symptoms at all at anytime.

’Others simply may have a headache for a day or sniffles. We are no different to other jurisdictions in that regard.

’The media in the UK has made guesstimates ranging from 10,000 to 80,000 but no public health organisation in the world has officially tried to monitor this as it’s not physically possible.’

Ms Magson’s letter of March 23 said it was essential that the public’s response to the guidance on social distancing, self-isolation and staying at home was closely monitored.

She added: ’The government should rapidly escalate the approach from engagement to enforcement if behaviour is not seen to change following the latest advice.

’We suggest a message to the public to reinforce just how important this is.’

The working group recommended that residents be told that unless they make ’significant changes in their lifestyle and behaviour’ that the virus will continue to spread ’and our NHS will not be able to cope’.