The weekly Covid-19 surveillance report released by the government shows there has been one more coronavirus related death in the island.

This brings the number of Covid-19 deaths in the Isle of Man since the start of the pandemic to 57.

The latest confirmed death occurred on September 30.

More generally, the current seven day average for confirmed positive cases is around 78, and the current overall trend of confirmed cases is slightly increasing.

The percentage of PCR tests being done as a result of the LFD (Lateral Flow Device) pathway is slightly increasing, with percentage of UK arrival tests slightly decreasing over the last two weeks.

Of all positive PCR tests on the island, 86% are from the LFD pathway.

In the last week, most confirmed positive cases have been in the 10 - 14 age group - although these numbers are falling - and as a result, all of these cases are unvaccinated.

In terms of trends going forward over the next few months, the government website states: ’Currently, the wave dynamics indicate a significant fall from peak daily new cases to a current position of slower decline/plateau, with notable daily variation as would be expected for a small population.

’This position is likely to continue while there is circulating virus, susceptible individuals in the population and stable patterns of behaviour/mixing.

’A fourth wave is predicted for the UK during Autumn/Winter 2021-22, although the timing of this is uncertain.

’It is reasonable to expect a similar wave here in the Isle of Man.’

As it has already been widely reported, it is expected that autumn and winter will likely see significant changes in mixing patterns (and hence Covid-19 and other respiratory pathogen transmission) due to people spending more time indoors with lower levels of fresh air/ventilation.

Winter pressures on health and care may be significantly increased this year if a further wave of Covid does indeed coincide with increased incidence of other seasonal respiratory infections such as flu, which were largely suppressed last year.