Ta reiltys Chatalonia kiarit dy chummal referendum er seyrsnys veih’* Spaainey er y chied laa jeh’* vee shoh çheet.

Ta shoh çheet lurg da parteeyn ta son seyrsnys cosney yn chooid smoo jeh ny stuill ayns ard-whaiyl yn ard ayns 2015 (agh red beg sloo na’* derrey lieh jeh ny voteyn).

Ta reiltys y Spaainey ayns Madrid shassoo er dy vel y referendum noi’* leigh as nagh vod ymmyd y ve jeant jeh argid yn state ny’* rolley-theay ry-hoi cummal y referendum.

Ta shenn ard-shirveishagh Chatalonia, Artur Mas, as fir-oik elley, er ve deyrit liorish quaiyl son jannoo drogh-ymmyd jeh’* phooar oc dy chummal referendum neu-chianglagh ayns 2014.

Cha row eiyrtyssyn leighoil er yn referendum shen, as she co-choyrlaghey symbolagh v’ayn rere yn reiltys Catalanagh; cha ren shen cosney er ny briwnyn Spaainagh my ta.

Ny-yeih t’eh possibyl dy jean yn tranlaase shoh er politickeyryn son lhiggey da sleih votal cooney lesh cooish ny seyrsnys ny s’leaie na cumrail ee. Va’* scarrey ayns barelyn y phobble er ny hoilshaghey dy baghtal lurg yn soiaghey aggleydagh er mean Varcelona er y gherrit shoh, va usit myr feanish liorish yn daa heu edyr dy beagh eh ro ghanjeyragh da Catalonia ve ny çheer seyr, er-nonney dy row yn state Catalanagh abyl dy ghellal rish çhennid as aarloo dy hassoo er e chassyn hene.

Ec y traa t’ayn t’eh jeeaghyn dy jean reiltys yn ard-shirveishagh Mariano Rajoy jannoo ymmyd jeh dy chooilley chluic leighoil oddys eh dy lhiettal yn referendum.

My haghrys eh as my ghoys yn pobble seyrsnys myr reih, ta’* reiltys Catalanagh er chroo slattyssyn nee lhiggey daue Pobblaght Chatalonia y ockley magh çheu-sthie jeh daa laa.

Ayns referendum co-choyrlee 2014 va ny smoo na 80% jeh ny voteyn son scarrey rish y Spaainey, agh ren ny sloo na’* derrey lieh jeh’* phobble votal as t’eh jeeaghyn dy ren y vunnys jeh’* sleih ta noi seyrsnys shaghney yn referendum. T’eh feer licklee dy daghyr yn un red reesht.

Ta ashooneyderyn Chatalonia treishteil dy vod ad cur broo dy liooar er reiltys y Spaainey dy chur orroo pleadeil as barganey, ver raad da referendum leighoil er-nonney ny smoo dy phooar argidoil da reiltys Chatalonia çheu-sthie jeh’* Spaainey.

Ny-yeih t’eh chiart cha possibyl dy jean yn referendum brasnagh Rajoy dy gheddyn rey rish reiltys Chatalonia son tammylt ny cur yn armee stiagh.

Ta reiltys Rajoy lhag, neu-ennoil as fo mee-ourys ayns scammylt molteyrys as sollaghey-laue, as veagh yn chooid smoo dy Spaainee coontey mie jeh smaghtaghey ny Catalanee.

Cha vel eh neu-phossibyl dy voddagh y ve er yn EU dy ghellal rish irree-magh as caggey theayagh ayns y Spaainey dy gerridâ??gyn imraa y yannoo jeh Brexit, yn çhennid arraghey as seaghynyn argidoil nagh vel feaysley orrroo foast. Cha nyrrys da leeideilee as naightoilee er feiy ny cruinney ve jeeaghyn lesh imnea er yn streeu eddyr Barcelona as Madrid as cur raaue da Rajoy gyn dy ve ro chreoi er ny Catalanee.

The regional government of Catalonia intends to hold a referendum on independence from Spain on October 1. This comes after pro-independence parties secured a majority in the Catalan parliament in 2015 (but slightly less than half of the votes).

The Spanish government in Madrid insists that the referendum is illegal and that neither state funds nor the electoral roll can be used to facilitate the referendum.

The former president of Catalonia, Artur Mas, and other officials, have been convicted of abuse of power for holding a non-binding referendum in 2014. This referendum had no legal consequences, but was a symbolic consultation according to the Catalan government; this did not convince the Spanish judges.

Nonetheless it is possible that this persecution of democratic politicians for allowing people to vote will help rather than hinder the cause of independence.

The polarization of opinion was shown starkly by the reaction to the recent terrorist attack in Barcelona: this was used by both sides either to show that it would be too dangerous for Catalonia to be an independent country, or on the contrary that the Catalan state was able to deal with a crisis and ready to stand on its own feet.

At the moment it appears that the government of prime minister Mariano Rajoy will use every legal ploy it can to prevent the referendum.

If it goes ahead and if the people choose independence the Catalan government has prepared legislation which will allow the proclamation of a Catalan republic within a day. In the 2014 consultative referendum more than 80% voted for separation from Spain, but less than half of the population voted and it seems that most of the opponents of independence boycotted the poll.

It is likely the same thing will happen again.

Catalan nationalists hope to put enough pressure on the Spanish government to bring them to the negotiating table, paving the way for a legal referendum or else greater fiscal autonomy for the region within Spain.

However, it is just as possible that the referendum will provoke Rajoy to suspend Catalan autonomy or send in the army. Rajoy’s government is weak, unpopular and mired in a bribery and fraud scandal, and punishing the Catalans would play well with most Spaniards.

It is not impossible that the EU will have to deal with insurrection and near civil war in Spain soonâ??not to mention Brexit, the migration crisis and unresolved financial problems.

It is no wonder that political leaders and commentators around the world have been looking with concern at the stand-off between Barcelona and Madrid and are warning Rajoy not to be too harsh on the Catalans.