The island’s National Insurance Fund is now projected to run out two years earlier than previously forecast.

A government actuarial report in 2022 calculated the fund - out of which the state pension and certain welfare benefits are paid - will reduce to zero by the year 2047-48.

But director of National Insurance David Ireland told Tynwald’s public accounts committee that further modelling work has now predicted that it will run out two years earlier, in 2045-46.

The fund currently stands at £1.08bn.

Asked by committee member Ann Corlett for his assessment of the fund’s sustainability, Mr Ireland said: ‘The latest report forecast that if we do nothing, the fund that underpins the operation of the scheme runs out in 2047-48.

‘So, in that sense, it is not sustainable.

‘The government actually did some further modelling work, looking at some options.

‘They took into account the significant increases there had been in the state pension. And it's now moved the exhaustion date forward by two years. So we're now looking at an exhaustion date of 2045-46.’

He said the pressures on the fund are well documented and highlighted the continuing impact of the triple lock, which increases the state pension each year by whichever is the highest figure: 2.5%, CPI inflation or average earnings growth.

Mr Ireland said: ‘When the policy was brought in, I don't think anyone was forecasting the volatility we were going to be experiencing with inflation and earnings.

‘It has helped with pensioner poverty, but it has come at a cost.’

Previous Treasury Minister Dr Alex Allinson had called for the triple lock to be scrapped in favour of a double lock guarantee that would see the state pension instead rise annually by either CPI inflation or 2%, whichever is higher.

But ahead of the 2025 Budget he announced that the triple lock would stay.